The expert believes that speculative capital is currently promoting the Russian currency. He argues that oil prices are in a relatively stable state, and strong price changes are a sign of speculators' “work”.
“The expectation of the end of the Ukrainian conflict with the further lifting of sanctions on the Russian Federation attracts speculative foreign capital into the country, which is in a hurry to make money on the high real rate (rates on the debt market minus the inflation rate). The largest Russian brokers confirm in March an increase in demand for Russian exchange-traded assets from foreign investors,” Potavin said in a conversation with ‘The Secret of the Firm’.
The expert also noted that the U.S. currency has fallen in price against almost all currencies of developing countries, so do not write it all off to capital. In addition, the demand for currency on the part of importers has decreased due to a sharp slowdown in lending.
Taking into account all economic indicators, mainly oil prices, the dollar rate should be “closer to 100 rubles,” the analyst believes.
Potavin also does not rule out a short-term decline in the rate to 80 rubles.
Earlier, the economist said that it is unrealistic to receive a pension of 100 thousand rubles.